Resultados do Atlas 2018 divulgado nesta terça-feira (5) com base em dados oficiais do Ministério da Saúde, no intervalo de 2006 a 2016, mostram que quatro estados tiveram aumento maior do que 100% na taxa de homicídios por 100 mil habitantes. Rio Grande do Norte teve a maior variação, indo de uma taxa de 14,9 em 2006 para 53,4 em 2016, um aumento de 256,9%. Além dele, Sergipe saiu de 29,2 para 64,7 no mesmo período, um crescimento de 121,1%, o que levou o estado à maior taxa de homicídios do país. E Tocantins aumentou 119%, indo de uma taxa de 17,2 por 100 mil em 2006 para 37,6 em 2016. Alagoas é o segundo estado mais violento, com taxa de 54,2.
Seis estados tiveram redução na taxa de homicídios no período. Além de São Paulo, o Espírito Santo reduziu 37,2% , indo de 50,9 em 2006 para 32 em 2016; o Rio de Janeiro reduziu 23,4%; Mato Grosso do Sul diminuiu 15,8%; Pernambuco reduziu a taxa em 10,2%; e o Paraná registrou queda de 8,1% no período. Enquanto o Rio de Janeiro interrompeu em 2012 um ciclo de diminuição no número de homicídios, São Paulo persiste nessa queda desde o ano 2000. Segundo o estudo, o final das Olimpíadas Rio 2016 marcou a transição para o forte crescimento no índice, unido às crises econômica e política no estado. A taxa de homicídios por 100 mil habitantes no estado caiu de 47,5 em 2006 para 29,4 em 2012 e saltou para 36,4 em 2016.
Os dados do Atlas da Violência 2018 foram coletados e analisados pelo Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea) e pelo Fórum Brasileiro de Segurança Pública (FBSP). Segundo a análise, a taxa de homicídios no Brasil corresponde a 30 vezes a da Europa, e o país ultrapassou o patamar de 62 mil homicídios por ano.
Monopólio do PCC
Os pesquisadores apontam que São Paulo obteve algum sucesso em políticas de controle das armas de fogo; melhorias no sistema de informações criminais e na organização policial; diminuição
acentuada na proporção de jovens na população e melhorias no mercado de trabalho. O estudo levanta também a hipótese da “pax monopolista do Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC)”, com o tribunal da facção criminosa controlando o uso da violência letal e gerando efeitos locais sobre a diminuição de homicídios em algumas comunidades.
A taxa no estado de São Paulo caiu de 20,4 por 100 mil em 2006 para 10,9 em 2016, uma queda de 46,7%, desbancando Santa Catarina como a taxa mais baixa no país. Os dois estados são as únicas unidades da Federação com taxas abaixo de 20 por 100 mil. O estado do sul saiu de 11,2 em 2006 para 14,2 em 2016. O terceiro estado com a menor taxa é o Piauí, com 21,8. O estudo aponta, ainda, a intervenção de governos estaduais na melhoria dos índices, com o lançamento, em 2011, na Paraíba e no Espírito Santo, dos programas Paraíba pela Paz e o Estado Presente, que fizeram os dois estados saírem da 3ª e 2ª unidades da Federação mais violenta do país para a 18º e 19º colocações em 2016, respectivamente.
Em números absolutos, a Bahia foi o estado com mais assassinatos no país em 2016, com um total de 7.171 mortes, seguida de Rio de Janeiro, com 6.053 e São Paulo, com 4.870 homicídios. Os estados com menos homicídios foram Roraima, com 204 pessoas mortas, o Acre teve 363 assassinatos e o Amapá registrou em 2016 381 mortes violentas intencionais.
Panorama global
O estudo fez um panorama global dos homicídios, com base em dados da Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) e da Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU) entre os anos 2000 e 2013. A taxa global oscila entre 6 e 9 assassinatos por 100 mil habitantes no período analisado, enquanto nas Américas sobe para 15 e na Europa,
Oceania e na Ásia a taxa fica sempre abaixo de 2 por 100 mil. A pior região em termos de violência é a América Central, com Honduras chegando a 85 e El Salvador. Guatemala e Belize estão na faixa de 40 homicídios por 100 mil habitantes. Na América do Sul, a Venezuela aparece nos dados da ONU com 54 homicídios por 100 mil habitantes em 2012.
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